Moonvember is here – How traders and investors can profit from the uptrend

Historically speaking, November is an uptrend month in the crypto industry. At least, this has been the case for the previous two bull markets that happened with 4-year gaps between. This time around, most traders expect the same as demand continues to increase, and most invest with bullish outlook.

When looking at options trading from platforms like Bitlevex, it is easy to see that most investors believe the next few months will act as a catalyst to higher prices. When looking at inactive wallet addresses over time, we also see large BTC accumulation occurring. Let’s take a look at what we can expect in the next few weeks.

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Historical progress of Bitcoin in November

There are two reference points to consider when looking at November performance for Bitcoin and the whole crypto market. 

The first point we can look at to get ideas of the performance we can expect is the previous bull market, namely November of 2017. It is in this month that Bitcoin started going mainstream, with many people watching surprisingly as the cryptocurrency broke record after record in terms of price.

The popular cryptocurrency started November with a slight dip, sitting at approximately $6000 per coin. Throughout the month, we saw an uptrend that elevated its value to nearly $13000 dollars. For reference, we are currently sitting at $68.000 and the month is barely a week underway.

The second reference point is the bull run of 2013. Once again, let’s focus on November alone. The month starts out with Bitcoin at $206 dollars. Then, it swiftly grows to $1129 without any significant retraces, making it more than a 500% move.

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Over the years, traders have come to notice that % gains tend to decrease in small timeframes, turning the explosive moves of the earlier bull runs into longer-lasting and more sustainable growth patterns in terms of current price growth.

What can we expect before the end of this month?

Based on the above, and paired with the opinions of experts, there are several scenarios we can make. We analyse them separately below. 

Scenario 1 – Bitcoin continues growing while bull run extends the prior ones.

According to PlanB’s S2F model, the price of Bitcoin should already be above $100.000. Seeing that it’s not can mean many things, but according to most experienced traders, it simply means that we can expect an extension of the bull market. This goes in line with what we mentioned in the previous chapter, as well as the much expected ETH 2.0 transition, which will drive a large amount of capital into the crypto markets.

Going back to PlanB, it might be interesting to note that he expects BTC to be worth $98.000 at this time.

Aside from a $98.000 Bitcoin, it is also important to keep in mind that in previous November months during bull markets, altcoins seem to consolidate, meaning that their dominance compared to Bitcoin decreases. Their value in USD could still continue growing, albeit not as explosive as we could expect in December.

Scenario 2 – The unexpected surprises experienced traders

The second scenario comes after considering Bitcoin’s performance over the past 6-month period. As we have heard many times before, history doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes, and this scenario benefits from this too. This forecast is based on market sentiment rather than charts and graphs, taking into account all the geopolitical issues we have seen since early 2020.

According to this scenario, we continue seeing a slow grind of Bitcoin towards the upside, with this month closing around $75.000-$80.000 per coin, much lower than PlanB predicts. However, we also continue seeing countries adopting BTC as legal tender, buying coins with their reserves, and more publicly listed companies doing the same on OTC markets.

At some point (well into 2022), Bitcoin is above $100.000 and has outgrown the historical price drop occurring in the beginning of the following year. It is at this point that Bitcoin available on exchange suddenly drains and there are no more coins available to purchase. First at one exchange, then at another, and suddenly at all. Companies have already made deals with miners to buy coins directly from them, and no one can buy anymore coins. At this point, several things will happen at once:

  • Individual investors with no exposure to BTC will only be able to buy ETFs from companies like Grayscale.
  • The price of “physical” Bitcoin compared to ETF BTC will differ, with the prior being much higher than the latter, similar to gold.
  • The price of BTC will explode, and we may see its value reach $1.000.000, following the supercycle theory laid out in 2019.
  • Bitcoin as currency might become illegal in several countries shortly here for  more : world247zone

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